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2024

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05

Sudden! The United States declared a state of emergency! Chemical products soared 3000 yuan/ton!


Recently, "the United States declared a state of emergency" topped the hot search list of many media platforms, which quickly attracted attention. On the 7th, Colonial Pipeline, the largest oil pipeline operator in the United States, was attacked by ransomware. Hackers controlled its computer system or data through illegal software, and Colonial Pipeline was forced to shut down its key fuel network for oil supply in the eastern coastal states of the United States. This incident alarmed US President Biden, who was on vacation at Camp David. A White House spokesman said that US President Biden was briefed on this matter on Saturday morning. On May 9, local time, the United States declared a state of emergency. The American energy "artery" was "cut off", and international oil prices rose accordingly. Colonial Pipeline operates the largest product oil pipeline system in the United States, which is not only an oil pipeline, but also close to the "artery" of American infrastructure. The 5,500-mile pipeline system runs between Houston, Texas and Linden, New Jersey, and transports more than 2.5 million barrels of fuel every day. The service scope covers fuels such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heating oil, and serves American military facilities. As of the 9th, the trunk line of the pipeline is still interrupted, and the recovery date has not been given. According to people familiar with the matter, the Colonial Pipeline Oil Pipeline Company warned state officials at a private meeting on Monday that although the company plans to reopen the oil pipeline later this week, supply shortages may still occur. People in the energy sector believe that the cyber attack on the 7th is the "most destructive attack on energy infrastructure" known to have occurred in the United States so far. This line is called the "infrastructure throat" of the United States by one analyst. If the pipeline is closed for a long time, the retail price of gasoline will soar before the summer driving season, which may hit both American consumers and the economy. This incident has aroused people's concerns about the shortage of gasoline, diesel and aviation kerosene. If the crisis continues, it will push up the US oil price and disrupt the US and even the global energy market. ING Economics said in a report, "The biggest unknown is how long the shutdown will last, but it is obvious that the longer the shutdown lasts, the more optimistic the refined oil price will be." The above news also directly caused price fluctuations of some energy commodities. In the Asian market on Monday (10th), US gasoline futures rose by over 4% to 2.217 USD/gallon, the highest since May 2018, and US heating oil futures also rose to the highest point since January 2020. In terms of international oil prices, US WTI crude oil futures rose 1.08% to $65.59 per barrel, while London Brent crude oil futures rose 1.1% to $69.03 per barrel. International crude oil surged, and the chemical industry responded quickly, with a maximum increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. The rise in the price of international crude oil has obviously boosted the chemical industry, and the products in the petroleum industry chain and derivative industry chain have responded quickly. According to Xiaobian's incomplete statistics, dozens of chemical raw materials have shown an upward trend since May, and leading enterprises have seized every opportunity to take the lead in announcing the increase. The products of Sheng Xi 'ao and ExxonMobil increased by more than 1000 yuan/ton, and chemicals such as n-butanol, isooctyl alcohol and butyl acrylate increased one after another, with the highest increase of 3,000 yuan/ton. Sheng Xi 'ao sent a letter saying that its subsidiaries in Europe have announced an increase in the prices of all grades of PS, ABS and SAN resins in Europe. From May 1, 2021, or according to the existing contract terms, the contract and spot prices of the following products will be increased: Stallone GPPS is raised by 105 euros/ton (about 818 yuan/ton); Stallone and Stallone A-Tech, Stallone X-Tech and C-Tech HIPS are raised by 105 euros/ton (about 818 yuan/ton); Maichun ABS resin is raised by 160 euros/ton (about 1247 yuan/ton); TYRIL SAN resin is raised by 170 euros/ton (about 1325 yuan/ton). ExxonMobil decided to increase the price of Santoprene(TPV) products by 200 USD/ton (1286 RMB/ton) from now on. On the 11th, n-butanol was quoted at 16,000 yuan/ton, rising by 3,000 yuan/ton in the month and 19.71% three days after the holiday. On the 11th, isooctanol was quoted at 16,500 yuan/ton, rising by 2,300 yuan/ton in the month. The manufacturer's quotation is about 16,800 yuan/ton, the upstream propylene market is consolidating at a high level, the cost of isooctanol is well supported, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is good. Recently, the isooctanol plant has been shut down for maintenance and the supply is insufficient. On the 11th, the price of butyl acrylate was 18,600 yuan/ton, up 2,166.67 yuan/ton in the month. On the 11th, aniline was quoted at 11,566.67 yuan/ton, up 833.34 yuan/ton in the month. At present, the supply of aniline market is still tight. The mainstream negotiation in East China is RMB 11,520-11,700/ton for acceptance, while the mainstream negotiation in North China is RMB 11,300-11,400/ton for cash and RMB 11,520-11,620/ton for acceptance. On the 11th, the price of cyclohexanone was 11,060 yuan/ton, rising by 640 yuan/ton within a month. The market price of cyclohexanone in East China rose, and the cost support was strong. The quotations of cyclohexanone manufacturers followed the rise, and the market price in East China was 11,100-11,300 yuan/ton. Shandong cyclohexanone market price rose, pure benzene listing continued to increase by 300 to 8,000 yuan/ton, and enterprise quotations followed the cost increase. The ex-factory price in Shandong is 10900-11000 yuan/ton in cash, and the market price is 10900-11000 yuan/ton in cash. On the 11th, the price of pure benzene was 8030 yuan/ton, up by 620 yuan/ton in the month. After Sinopec raised the 300 yuan to 8,000 yuan/ton, the market was active and the spot transaction reached a high of 8,300 yuan/ton. On the 11th, the price of propylene oxide was 19,400 yuan/ton, up by 500 yuan/ton in the month, and that of Wanhua Chemical was 19,800 yuan/ton, up by 500 yuan/ton in the month. On the 11th, the price of phenol was 9380 yuan/ton, which rose by 460 yuan/ton within a month. The raw material pure benzene is improving, and the price of phenol factory is raised. Under the favorable support, the quantity controlled by the goods holders is pushing up. On the 11th, the price of styrene was 10,133.33 yuan/ton, rising by 383.33 yuan/ton in the month. Pure benzene is strong, the cost of styrene is well supported, and the spot supply is still tight. It is expected that styrene will remain at a high level. On the 11th, propylene was quoted at 8313.91 yuan/ton, up 268.09 yuan/ton in the month. The international oil price is expected to rush to $100, and the chemical industry is hard to stop. Most institutions are optimistic about the oil price trend in the later period. US crude oil inventories dropped significantly, which also boosted oil prices. Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil price to reach $80/barrel in the third quarter. Some analysts pointed out that in the frenzied market atmosphere, the international oil price may hit a high of 100 dollars in the future. Some traders in the market have even bought crude oil options for three key months at the price of $100 a barrel in advance. The China market has recovered rapidly and maintained a good growth momentum. Although there are still variables in the current relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, the market is generally optimistic. The agency believes that the new demand for crude oil will be greater than the reduced demand, so the oil price is generally on the rise. As the source of the chemical industry, the price of petroleum products, which is also an important energy source in the world, fluctuates at a high level, which will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the chemical industry chain and the derivative industry chain. The existence of many variables in the second quarter has become an invisible pusher to help the price of chemical products rise.

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